Top of 1 sillinessVayl2 can top of one kill casters. At a bit worse odds then Kara Sloan but still good enough to be silly.
Lets walk through this. You activate something to kill a tentacle. I like to use a deathstalker. The hell mouth activates, creates a new tentacle within 8" and run it 10" so its 22" in front of Vayl2. Then the seraph slipstreams and fail charges up the board. Moving Vayl2 2" up the board. She walks up 6" and shoot a tentacle in the butt with a far strike from the Bolt Thrower. For a total threat of 31.6". This covers 11.99" of your opponents deployment line.
If your opponents caster is in this zone you might want to feat on them just to get them out of the game. I usually just throw 2 fully boosted chasten top of 1. The 3-8 damage is enough to keep their caster out of the game and you can get more value out of the normal spells turn 2.
The feat turn usually goes like this. I activate Vayl2, Feat, cast slipstream,. walk into position, put up far strike, throw a ball at a tentacle, put wraith bane on a beast that needs it. Use your normal spells. For me its normally admonition on the seraph, boundless charge on AA and Occultation on Vayl2. Then it's time to do the kill. Throw icy grip without a boost. If they are a low defense caster you can throw 3 Chasten(pow 12) with boosted damage and one Deadly storm (pow 13) with boosted damage. If they got high defense you throw 2 chasten and one Deadly Storm with boost to hit and damage.
Maths read at your own perilThe easiest to kill is Caine2. Issy can just cancel the spells with her vortex. With focus to burn he is arm 18 with 15 boxes.
So you need to hit him. He is hit on a 9. Following the guideline above we do not boost to hit the icy grip. Giving us a 10/36 to hit it. If we miss it we hit him on a boosted 9 with the bolts. 160/216 to hit him. That means that the odds to hit him 3 times in a row is (160/216)^3= 0,406=40,6%
If we hit him its 196/216 to hit him. 3 times in a row= 74,7%
Giving us 10/36*0,747+26/36*0,406=0,208+0,293=50,1% chance to hit him 3 times.
You need to roll 32 on 9 dice damage. Which is 50% chance to do.
Adding to that the chance that you kill him in only 2 hits and spiking the damage rolls
The odds of hitting one chasten is 1-odds of hitting both-odds of missing both. 1-(160/216)^2-(56/216)^2 = 38,5% Then you have to hit the Deadly Storm. So 28,5%
Then you need to roll 26 on six dice to kill him. The odds to roll 26 on 6 dice is:6 748 / 46 656 = 14,5%
If it's the deadly storm that miss you need to roll 27 on the damage dice which is 4 501/46 656 = 9,6%
Odds of hitting 2 chasten is (160/216)^2=54,9%
Then we need to miss the deadly storm or this is covered in the odds above. So 14,2%
That is actually a bit below the real number since you might just roll 26 on 6d6 when you hit all your spells but fuck it this is close enough for me. Over and out. Back with more math tomorrow.