Dice HappensSo Sunday it was time for the tough games. So the field I was preparing for was 3 Cygnar, 2 Mercs, another Legion and a Skorne. I unlike the rest of these people had the ability to change up my lists. So looking at it we had Jarle with Haley2 and Sloan. The big problem. Then we had Wedding that was more or less one listing it with Haley3. Olov that had a crappy Stryker1 list and the normal Haley2 Heavy metal stuff. Then we had Joakim and Oscar. Both playing Bossrum and something that did not matter so Bossrum gets ADR. Gustav was bringing Lylyth3 and Thags2. Finally it was the Kit Kats+Makeda1 from Hans.
So when I look at that field I really want Abby2 against everything that is not Cygnar. Then I have a list I can tech as much as I want against Cygnar. So I look at my options. I think Fyanna2 got game against Sloan. Problem is she does not have game against Haley2 or 3. So she's out. Next on the block is Lylyth3.
People somehow think Lylyth3 is a good drop against Sloan. A good drop for me does not have an optimal play where you lose 1/3 of the time. If there is an objective she loses 2/3:s of the time. That's not a caster I want to use in my pairing to tech against Sloan. Not to mention how one-sidedly Lylyth3 gets crushed by Haley2. You can look at Jarles games against Gustav on his blog. It's ludicrously hard to play while Haley2 just rolfstomp towards the middle and eventually wins on scenario.
Then we had my secret pick. I was thinking about brining it. Thags1 with 3 Carniveans, Typhon, Seraph, Naga and 4 free solos. It's so much meat to get through. If you set it up correctly they can't get the Seraph and then you can slipstream what ever heavy that survives the Haley2 feat turn back into his army and wreck face. You often end up losing a Carnivean on her feat turn but you can feat that back and not many casters can trade feats with Haley2. It's terrible against Haley3 though. She just repudiates the Carnivean she wants to kill that turn and you are sad.
So I go for my comfort pick the Vayl2 list. I know neither Wedding or Olov have faced her very much in mk3 and it's easy to make a mistake against the list. Either playing to passiv or to aggressive. It needed a small change tough. I took out my Ravagore for a second Carnivean. Which is worse against Haley2 but better against Sloan.
So the first game I have 4/7 chance to dodge Cygnar. Also known as 3/7 chance to get Cygnar. Which I did. Dodging cygnar 2017 was not a working plan so far.
So I'm against Wedding. He plays the same old Haley3 list as always I think. There is a small twist though. He has brought in Gorman and Gibbs into his list. Which significantly changes the math on my assassination run. Something I don't understand till after the game.
So rolling for first. He has +1 but I really want it. So like a boss I roll a 6, he rolls a 5, then I roll a 6 again, he rolls a 5 again and finally I roll a 4 and he fails rolling a 1. So I get to go first. Woop Woop.
You really want to go first against Haley3. She needs a turn to prepare before she is ready to grind. So hopefully you can hit her hard enough to get her off the table. As I say that when I look at this I think I should have gone second. That side was so good and I can drag this out going for the scenario win I think.
He picked the side with a wall center in his AD. Letting him get a great starting point for Haley3 to grind this game down.
He makes the small mistake of placing two trenchers just straight over from Vayl2. On the AD line. So I don't even have to snipe Vayl2 to get to them. I chasten one boost to hit, killing it. The second I do the same. It toughs but I did not need snipe so I can afford another chasten. Knocked down means I trivially kill it.
In his turn he walks up does some damage to my carnivean. JWC:s charge kills the harrier and finally Arcane Shield goes on the horses. Gorman walks up creates a cloud. Then repositions out of it since Gibbs synergy. This gives Haley3 concealment against my assassination run. Letting her stand on two in the middle of the table.
When Wedding tries to hit over to me I remind that he has not activated all his models. So the last Grenadier walks up. Scatters a shot into Bayal. Killing him and another of his friends. That's what you get for being nice :'(
I try to grind first. It's always a bad plan against Haley3 but I try okay. Seraph walks up, slipstreaming Carnivean into range. Shoots the Grenadier, Flaring it. Naga gives wraithbane. Now Carnivean is ready to go and rolls terribly. Missing a lot of attacks. So he has to buy all 3 attacks. In my head he would kill it with enough fury left to spiny. Becoming somewhat of a problem in Haley3:s zone next turn. But nope. So the grind is going terribly. You know what that means. Time to go for it.
Haley3 is inside of 16" from the Bloodseer. The assassination run will not get better than this. Next turn Haley3 will have arcane shield so that will eat 3 more damage. I will get some random shots next turn though.
So my pot goes creates a Harrier. It runs into position. Bloodseer runs into position. Hex hunters have to go first they jam hard. To try and keep vayl2 safe next turn. Harrier runs into position so there is no wall between it and Haley3. Then Vayl2 goes for it. I boost Icy Grip for some reason. Dunno why. Should not do that. Anyway. Miss it. Chasten. Miss, Deadlystorm, since she already had a cloud. Miss. 3 missed 10:s in a row and it's time to pull the plug. I don't need 5 fury I think. So I chasten Gorman. Just since I hate Gorman. Hitting, but rolls snake eyes for damage.
Then my second carnivean shoots my carnivean in the butt killing a trencher. The bolt thrower kills a Horsie.
Now it's Weddings turn to start a 30 minutes turn. Everything is proxybased. He goes for his assassination run. Which is a lot better then my 20%:er. It's in the 80%+ range.
I don't see why he does it though. He could just grind. I lost my primary threat to Haley3. My only out in this game and it's gone. He should just grind this out. Take the free Carnivean, Bloodseer, Sorc and all the Hexhunters. Maybe even kills the Bolt Thrower if he had some attacks over.
Anyway. Wedding is known as the worst assassination player in the game. Not saying he's bad at it but for his skill level he's terrible. He always grinds. So he does not practice it enough. Leaving him with subpar skills. Then he makes mistakes. Proxy base machine ahead. The rock wall is to make sure he does get engaged after triggering admonition.
He starts it off in the terrible way, killing a Harrier giving me another transfer. Then Thorn gets shadowbound by a free strike of a Hex Hunter. A cav clears up the way for a trencher to run up against Vayl2. Then the charge aims and kills my Sorc. Which had a nice wind ravager on his whole army.
Finally it's time for the assassination run. Baby slams the trencher into me. Haley3 repudiates away my stealth and spiny growth. Finally grandma shoots me 3 times. Doing one crazy damage roll and two crazy bad damage rolls. So of course I transfer the 15. keeping the two low rolls. Then he got a 2 shots from a charge and 2 shots from a grenadier left. I have 3 transfers and 6 boxes. So all his attacks have to one shot me. First grenadier walks up and rolls a 14 on the damage roll that I transfer. Following that was a 5. Doing 4 damage. So I live. Woop Woop.
This is another example of the core principle. There is no safe assassination run. NEVER go for it unless you are behind in the grind.
Wedding concedes and I'm one win closer the prize. In my head the Bloodseer crit KD:s Haley3 and kills her.